Published in the New York Post on March 5, 2008.
With big wins in Ohio and Texas last night, Hillary Clinton has finally broken her losing streak and sent a clear message to Barack Obama: I’m not getting out.
For the Illinois senator, the meaning of the primaries is clear - he has to get tough. Hillary can still win this nomination. The proportional representation system of allocating delegates chosen by primaries and caucuses mutes the impact of the popular vote.
By the time the Texas caucuses are fully counted, Obama may have maintained or even expanded his delegate lead, despite Hillary’s victories in three out of four states.
Among the remaining 600 delegates to be chosen, Obama should be able to add to his lead.
But there remain 800 superdelegates, each entitled to a full vote. No matter if Obama leads among elected delegates, they can still deliver the nomination to Hillary.
Do they dare?
If Clinton is able to score a series of popular-vote victories in these late primaries, she could lay the basis for an appeal to the superdelegates to disregard the results of January and February and look instead at her success in the later contests.
The battle of Hillary is over. The battle of Obama has begun.
The question of his readiness and experience looms ever larger in the minds of the media and of voters.
Her red-phone ad, citing her supposedly superior readiness to be commander in chief, evidently cut deeply among the electorate.
It’s time that Obama counters her strategy by hitting back. His lofty politics of hope will avail him little in the aggressive, rough-and-tumble world of modern politics.
He’s got to spell out the special-interest connections that stigmatize Hillary as the tool of the lobbyists.
He must underscore the need for her to release her tax returns for 2007 and 2006 to show the source of her new-found wealth.
He’s got to learn to trade blows with the Clintons, the best counterpunchers in the business.
Looming above the primaries is the specter of the unseated delegations from Michigan - chosen in a primary with only Hillary’s name on the ballot - and Florida.
Obama needs to stop her gathering momentum by shedding his ingenue status and fighting hard for the nomination his previous victories have earned him.
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Just a quick refresher course, lest we forget what has happened to many “friends” of the Clintons:
1 - James McDougal - Clinton’s convicted Whitewater partner died of an apparent heart attack, while in solitary confinement. He was a key witness in Ken Starr’s investigation.
2 - Mary Mahoney - A former White House intern was murdered July 1997 at a Starbucks Coffee Shop in Georgetown. The murder happened just after she was to go public with her story of sexual harassment in the White House.
3 - Vince Foster - Former White House counselor and colleague of Hillary Clinton at Little Rock’s Rose Law firm. Died of a gunshot wound to the head, ruled a suicide.
4 - Ron Brown - Secretary of Commerce and former DNC Chairman. Reported to have died by impact in a plane crash. A pathologist close to the investigation reported that there was a hole in the top of Brown’s skull resembling a gunshot wound. At the time of his death Brown was being investigated, and spoke publicly of his willingness to cut a deal with prosecutors. The rest of the people on the plane also died. A few days later the Air Traffic controller committed suicide.
5 - C. Victor Raiser II - Raiser, a major player in the Clinton fund raising organization died in a private plane crash in July 1992
6 - Paul Tulley - Democratic National Committee Political Director found dead in a hotel room in Little Rock, September 1992. Described by Clinton as a “dear friend and trusted advisor”.
7 - Ed Willey - Clinton fund raiser, found dead November 1993 deep in the woods in VA of a gunshot wound to the head. Ruled a suicide.
Ed Willey died on the same day his wife Kathleen Willey claimed Bill Clinton groped her in the oval office in the White House. Ed Willey was involved in several Clinton fund raising events.
8 - Jerry Parks - Head of Clinton’s gubernatorial security team in Little Rock. Gunned down in his car at a deserted intersection outside Little Rock. Park’s son said his father was building a dossier on Clinton. He allegedly threatened to reveal this information. After he died the files were mysteriously removed from his house.
9 - James Bunch - Died from a gunshot suicide. It was reported that he had a “Black Book” of people which contained names of influential people who visited prostitutes in Texas and Arkansas.
10 - James Wilson - Was found dead in May 1993 from an apparent hanging suicide. He was reported to have ties to Whitewater
11 - Kathy Ferguson- Ex-wife of Arkansas Trooper Danny Ferguson, was found dead in May 1994, in her living room with a gunshot to her head. It was ruled a suicide even though there were several packed suitcases, as if she were going somewhere. Danny Ferguson was a co-defendant along with Bill Clinton in the Paula Jones lawsuit. Kathy Ferguson was a possible corroborating witness for Paula Jones.
12 - Bill Shelton - Arkansas State Trooper and fiancé of Kathy Ferguson. Critical of the suicide ruling of his fiancé, he was found dead in June, 1994 of a gunshot wound also ruled a suicide at the grave site of his fiancé.
13 - Gandy Baugh - Attorney for Clinton’s friend Dan Lassater, died by jumping out a window of a tall building January, 1994. His client was a convicted drug distributor.
14 - Florence Martin - Accountant & subcontractor for the CIA, was related to the Barry Seal Mena Airport drug smuggling case. He died of three gunshot wounds.
15 - Suzanne Coleman - Reportedly had an affair with Clinton when he was Arkansas Attorney General. Died of a gunshot wound to the back of the head, ruled a suicide. Was pregnant at the time of her death.
16 - Paula Grober - Clinton’s speech interpreter for the deaf from 1978 until her death December 9, 1992. She died in a one car accident.
17 - Danny Casolaro - Investigative reporter. Investigating Mean Airport and Arkansas Development Finance Authority. He slit his wrists, apparently, in the middle of his investigation.
18 - Paul Wilcher - Attorney investigating corruption at Mean Airport with Casolaro and the 1980 “October Surprise” was found dead on a toilet June 22, 1993 in his Washington, DC apartment. Had delivered a report to Janet Reno weeks before his death.
19 - Jon Parnell Walker - Whitewater investigator for Resolution Trust Corp. Jumped to his death from his Arlington, Virginia apartment balcony August 15, 1993 . He was investigating the Morgan Guaranty scandal.
20 - Barbara Wise - Commerce Department staffer. Worked closely with Ron Brown and John Huang. Cause of death unknown. Died November 29, 1996. Her bruised, nude body was found locked in her office at the Department of Commerce.
21 - Charles Meissner - Assistant Secretary of Commerce who gave John Huang special security clearance, died shortly thereafter in a small plane crash.
22 - Dr. Stanley Heard - Chairman of the National Chiropractic Health Care Advisory Committee died with his attorney Steve Dickson in a small plane crash. Dr. Heard, in addition to serving on Clinton’s advisory council personally treated Clinton’s mother, stepfather and brother.
23 - Barry Seal -Drug running pilot out of Mean Arkansas, death was no accident.
24 - Johnny Lawhorn Jr. - Mechanic, found a check made out to Bill Clinton in the trunk of a car left at his repair shop. He was found dead after his car had hit a utility pole.
25 - Stanley Huggins - Investigated Madison Guaranty. His death was a purported suicide and his report was never released.
26 - Hershell Friday - Attorney and Clinton fund raiser died March 1, 1994 when his plane exploded.
27 - Kevin Ives & Don Henry - Known as “The boys on the track” case. Reports say the boys may have stumbled upon the Mena Arkansas airport drug operation. A controversial case, the initial report of death said, due to falling asleep on railroad tracks. Later reports claim the 2 boys had been slain before being p laced on the tracks. Many linked to the case died before their testimony could come before a G rand Jury. THE FOLLOWING PERSONS HAD INFORMATION ON THE IVES/HENRY CASE:
28 - Keith Coney - Died when his motorcycle slammed into the back of a truck, 7/88.
29 - Keith McMaskle - Died stabbed 113 times, Nov, 1988
30 - Gregory Collins - Died from a gunshot; wound January 1989.
31 - Jeff Rhodes - He was shot, mutilated and found burned in a trash dump in April 1989.
32 - James Milan - Found decapitated. However, the Coroner ruled his death was due to “natural causes”.
33 - Jordan Kettleson - Was found shot to death in the front seat of his pickup truck in June 1990.
34 - Richard Winters - A suspect in the Ives / Henry deaths. He was killed in a set-up robbery July 1989. THE FOLLOWING CLINTON BODYGUARDS ARE DEAD:
35 - Major William S. Barkley Jr.
36 - Captain Scott J. Reynolds
37 - Sgt. Brian Hanley
38 - Sgt. Tim Sabel
39 - Major General William Robertson
40 - Col. William Densberger
41 - Col. Robert Kelly
42 - Spec. Gary Rhodes
43 - Steve Willis
44 - Robert Williams
45 - Conway LeBleu
46 - Todd McKeehan
If Florida and Michigan are not to be counted in the democratic convention then shouldn’t the majority condition reflect that? The magic number, 2,025, is based on a full 4,049 delegate count. Subtracting the 128 Florida and 185 Michigan delegates, then the full delegate count reduces to 3,736. So now the magic number should be 1,869 which, it seems to me, would be within reach of one candidate or the other.
Wouldn’t that be the logical way for the democrats to resolve their quandary?
Perhaps having an “adult” in the room would have prevented the Florida/Michigan problem and is what is needed now is to resolve the issue. Not counting F/M is not fair to the voters in those states. Counting them, as is, would not be fair to the candidates who played by the rules, didn’t campaign and/or were not on the ballot.
Seems clear to me a re-do is the only answer which raises the question of who pays for it. I would say that since the juveniles in charge of F/M and their sibblings in the DNC both acted out that a it would be fair to split the cost.
Dick, what is it every election that drives the Dems to screw up their chances to win?
On re-opening NAFTA the people of Ohio were duped by both candidates. The US would not be that stupid. First, on the basis of environmental standards, working conditions(all workers have health care) and wages(min wages across Cda are higher) Canada is better off than the US. Second, this time around Canada has the trump card in its oil and gas exports to the US. China is lobbying Canada very hard to sell its oil and gas to them. Third, Canada would very much like to get to the table to re-open the dispute mechanism. An area where they have lost out to the US in the past. It was perhaps good politics but would be stupid policy. The issues the candidates raise would be very applicable to trade agreements with Mexico, China and South American companies and their would be very effective policy.
The real blunder was for Obama’s peopel to meet with any Canadian official. Nothing but downside there. … and HRC jumped on it.
Also, I was surprised that neither candidate got specific about companies that outsourced Ohio jobs and at the same time took tax breaks.
Obama so far has been a quick study. He should take a look at how McCain handled his shots. Specifically the lobbist/sex issue and the vitriolic attack by Cunningham on Obama. He fired off with a very quick, clear and decisive response and the issues were behind him quickly. Obama needs a “counterpunch” team. He also could learn from HRC how to instantly spin a negative situation quickly into an advantage. She nailed him on the NAFTA issue.
He may want to keep to the high road but there could learn from Kerry’s failure to respond decisively to the swift boat issue and in trying to avoid any negative approach. I would have thought Obama would have learned something from Chicago politics … I hope so. HRC is very vulnerable on disclosure of the Clinton’s joint income and contributions to Bill’s foundations. Obama should also attack HRC on non-dislosure of her agenda’s from the Clinton years. Just hanging around and having tea isn’t real foreign policy experience. Travelling to 80 countries is clear evidence of having a good time but without the agendas we don’t know what real work was done by her.
If Florida and Michigan decide to be represented,all the candidated would have to be represented again. How could that possibly be fair to the past drop outs from the race that don’t have the advantage of the last serveral weeks of campaigning?
I believe the Clintons have not disclosed their tax returns because people will find out that they didn’t actually loan themselves the 5 ML for Hillary’s campaign, but somebody else did.
Dick, Please bring up Hillary’s representation of the Black Panthers years ago.
I don’t really mind if Clinton wins the nominee because she’s not able to unite the party (she only for Hillary) and therefore less likely to win the general election. But I really don’t know how long I can stand listening to her. I also don’t know why the democratic party can’t see the writing on the wall. If they think Bill’s moral behavior was bad as President… he’ll have more opportunity for mischief this time.
To Tide: I believe the 2025 total delegates needed to win the Dem nomination is already reduced by excluding the MI and FL delegate count. The normal magic number would be approx. 2200.
One can not help recognize the shift in the right wing Republican media against Barack Obama (Fox News/ and many previous radio show hosts now on CNN Headline news)their fangs descended and their tongues whip about scenting the air with racial and religious animosity, while President Bush joined in on Hillary’s talking points against Obama, McCain re-repeating Hillary’s talking points and virtually ignoring Hillary. Hillary happily attacking Obama by using the same campaign techniques she has complained the Republicans have used against the Clintons while still claiming to be a victim at every turn.
In addition, the entire media, yes even MSNBC and CNN, seemed to shift negatively towards Obama ensuring a wonderful story for their stations to cover. With this pounding and re-pounding on Obama’s possible lack of trustworthiness to be inferred by his race and/or religion began to spread like an infection. The alliance between Hillary and the Republican establishment, and its right wing radio talk show hosts/ Fox News members combined with the other media converged to create the Perfect Political Storm. All would benefit from the single act of destroying Barack Obama’s candidacy.
What are the benefits for the respective parties?
The republican establishment and it’s right wing members would benefit from Hillary pulling ahead. Assuring the democratic party’s exhaustion of campaign funds and self destruction resulting from a continued negative campaign even if only engaged by Hillary. Time to introduce McCain in a more positive light. The right wing republican party news media and talk show hosts benefit as do the rest of the media by ensuring a continuation of a campaign that gets them great ratings.
Hillary, well, she is willing to win at any cost.
One stupid rookie mistake by the Obama team regarding the NAFTA memo and their response to it set loose the building infection created by Hillary, the republican establishment and the right wing faction and the media and served as justification for those already infected to act upon their racial and religious prejudices. Awe, here was real proof that Obama was not trustworthy. The truth is that even without this mistake Obama would have lost as he did because the perfect political storm was allowed to converge without much resistance or notice from his campaign.
The Democratic National Party needs to wake up because Obama is retooling. He has to retool and take no prisoners. It is no longer his responsibility to maintain the party cohesiveness as the DNC has taken no action to muzzle Hillary. I think Barack Obama must let go of trying to avoid fracturing the democratic party because it is not his concern even despite the DNC’s abdication of their responsibility to the party. Obama only weakens his appearance when being too polite to Hillary in circumstances where she is clearly undeserving.
It is time to take all the questions first in debates if not specifically assigned, to forcefully interrupt and not take no for an answer, talk over the other candidate and keep on talking. Taxes releases to be called for, white water to be revisited, the entire show should be open. Obama has to bring it! and, bring it Now. Time to stop worrying about the Democratic Party because, clearly, it needs a good house cleaning. Take her down Obama or you have handed the to the barn keys to the Fox.
To dem4dm:
Thanks. The 2025 figure was the first one I had heard about months ago and I didn’t know that the Florida/Michigan silliness had been taken into account.
I do find it humorous that the leadership is now talking about the “right” of the people in those two states to have their votes counted. Why should we have any sympathy for folks who KNEW the party would not seat the delegates but went ahead and voted anyway? What were they thinking?