I believe that Barack Obama will defeat Hillary and win the Democratic nomination. I think that this weekend’s victories in states as diverse as Washington State, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Maine illustrates his national appeal and demonstrates Hillary’s inability to win in states without large immigrant and Latino populations.
Hillary’s results on Super Tuesday, which amounted to a draw with Obama, will be her high water mark and will represent the closest she will ever come to the party nomination.
Right now, CBS has Obama ahead in elected delegates with 1134, while Hillary has only 1131.By the time Virginia, Maryland, DC, Wisconsin, and Hawaii vote during the next week, Obama will have a lead over Clinton of about 100 delegates, even counting the super delegates who have thus far committed themselves.
March 4th will, at worst, be a wash for Obama with his probably wins in Ohio, Rhode Island and Vermont offsetting his probable defeat in Texas. (Although in Texas’ open primary, Republicans and Independents may flock to the Dem primary to beat Hillary).
And then come a list of states almost all of which should go for Obama, including likely victories in Pennsylvania, North Carolina, and Indiana. By the convention, he will have more than enough delegates to overcome the expected margins Hillary may rack up among super delegates.
And don’t bet on all the super delegates staying hitched to Hillary. These folks are politicians, half of them public office holders who are really good at reading the handwriting on the wall and really bad at gratitude for past favors.
Since 2004, I have predicted that Hillary Clinton would be the nominee. But, given the consistently amazing performance of Obama, his superior organizational and fund-raising skills, his inspiration of young people, and the flat and completely uninspiring performance by Hillary, it looks to me like it will be Obama as the Democratic nominee.
 |
Comments
Only subscribers to Dick Morris' '08 Play-By-Play may post comments. You must be logged in to post a comment.
Like I said if Barack survived super Tuesday he would be the democratic nominee. Dick, you really should send me one of your books since right now you are agreeing with my political prediction :.. That being said, Obama still has a long way to go. He can not falter and his supporters can not turn away for a second lest their candidate be taken from their very grasp.
As I type, I can feel the Clinton machine desperate, and darkening. I can’t even imagine what they are promising John Edwards for his endorsement. I am not experienced enough to anticipate what other sideshows they may offer to get the voters to look away from Barack Obama. What do you think is coming from them?
Regarding Edwards endorsement: To have John Edwards endorse Barack Obama right now is less important than not having him endorse Hillary. If the reports are true and Barack is having to slow his momentum down by going to Mr. Edwards’ home to discuss the endorsement issue, I can only conclude that Mr. Edwards is allowing this distraction. Another side show.
It is Barack who needs to be on the ground with the populace to win and not waste precious time with Mr. Edwards. I liked Mr. Edwards for VP with Barack Obama not long ago but I am not so sure now. Simply put, I worry that Mr. Edwards may not really be the guy he told us he was because if he was that guy he would not be engaging in this distracting ring kissing contest at this stage in the race.
At this point, I wish Mr. Edwards would honor his previous decision and just continue to stay out the race. Let Barack win it on his own with the people deciding for themselves. What a concept.
Does anybody else hear the engine of the Clinton garbage truck spinning out?
Obama’s message resonates with me and Hillary’s does not. We have serious issues to deal with including the war and the economy. It is apparent from the past seven years+ that we will not move forward with more partisan bickering. This is where HRC loses me with her message that she is experienced and ready to go day one. Yes, she is experienced at promoting ideology over solutions as she did years ago with health care, yes she is experienced at low blow dirty politics, yes she is experienced at milking money from lobbyists but isn’t that the change most of us want…and so on. I would rather have a rookie pointed in the right direction than a veteran promoting same old, same old.
Obama is much more presidential than Hillary. She is not very knowledgable, not very smart or articulate. On 60 Minutes last night, all I learned about what she wants to do with our country is keep from getting sick. So apparently she washes her hands a lot and drinks a lot of water. Thanks. Very helpful in learning what her policies will be. Sadly, we know liberalism has never worked–and that is exactly what she will be implementing if elected. Personally, I WANT her to get the nomination because she is so hated every single centrist and conservative will show up to vote.
No doubt about it, Obama has struck a chord with the Democrats mesmerized by his infectious oratory skills. I do not count Hillary out quite yet in a quest she has sought for a lifetime. It will continue to go down to the wire.
Regardless, the other BIG story which is attempted to be buried is the inspirational run Mike Huckabee continues to make for the Republican nomination. If it were Romney making this same effort the GOP, media and talking heads would be drooling over themselves talking about mathmatical possibilities of a brokered convention. Despite the minimal coverage and constant echo of the, “Huckabee can’t win” chorus, while his campaign moves forward with even more momentum.
Mike will win today and continue to confound those who have opposed him from the beginning. The Huckabee story is as relevant as the first minority or first woman seeking the office of president becasue his is not based on gender or race, but on perseverence against all odds. If anyone can shine a light on this incredible effort it is you Dick Morris. Have the courage to go against the conventional ( not wisdom )back room deals and talk about an evolving phenomena in the Huckabee campaign. Mike’s run has been a consistent miracle and the biggest is yet to come.
Randy Whitman
Toledo, Ohio
Heb 11:1
OBAMA, THE DEMOCRATIC NOMINEE? YES HE CAN!
I believe that Barack Obama will defeat Hillary and win the Democratic nomination. I think that this weekend’s victories in states as diverse as Washington State, Louisiana, Nebraska, and Maine illustrates his national appeal and demonstrates Hillary