The USA Today headline on Monday said it all: “Obama Erases Clinton Lead.” The press on the day before Super Tuesday has been the best that Obama could hope for. In a race dominated by perception, you could not buy more favorable publicity than the published reports of his closing the gap with Hillary.
He will also benefit from the companion articles in most papers showing that McCain enjoys a comfortable lead over Romney. With Independents able to vote in either party primary in half of the Super Tuesday states, this information may induce many anti-Hillary voters to back Obama rather than McCain as the most likely way to beat her. They may figure that McCain no longer needs their votes but that Obama needs them badly as he is now within striking distance of victory.
Such is the power of perception in this race and so widespread is tactical voting, that the Monday newspapers are almost as important as a primary before the actual voting on Tuesday. Its really the media primary and Obama won it decisively on Monday.
Even before he got headlines politicians can only dream about, Obama was the beneficiary of a bump in his favor on Sunday night.
Last week featured an Obama surge on Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday as news of his South Carolina win and the Kennedy endorsement made the rounds. His success in calling the Clintons on their racial tactics played a key role in this movement.
But the race leveled off on Thursday, Friday and Saturday perhaps because Hillary did OK in the debate and won in Florida.
But Sunday was Obama’s night and Monday showed a massive gain in California, possibly because his Kennedy endorsement ad was starting to take effect and possibly because his young voters were waking up to the race and flocking to his candidacy. The Wow! factor may be propelling the shift.
In any case, Hillary is now talking about a long state-by-state fight that will go longer than she once thought it would and her campaign is saying that she will win “substantial” numbers of delegates. Gone are the predictions of victory.
On the Republican side, McCain is likely to end up with about 700 delegates while holding Romney to about 400. With 1,151 needed to win, the race is heavily stacked toward McCain. Romney will only get this close because he dumped $4 million in advertising into California, where McCain could not afford to advertise at all.
Pressure will mount on Romney to pull out for the sake of the party and permit it to concentrate on the main task: defeating the Democrats. Look for Huckabee, who will have about 100 delegates, to play an important role in helping to bring the party together.
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Dear Mr. Morris,
My mother is 86 years old and Hispanic. She worked in social welfare programs for the elderly and homeless for many years. She was supporting John Edwards until he dropped out of the race. She lives in Madera California.
I called her tonight to see who she was voting for tomorrow. She surprised me when she told me it was Barack Obama. I asked her why she chose Barack over Hillary. She told me that Hillary really “P’d” her off when she saw the debate because she never answered the question asked directly.
I was a little stunned because my mother has never used the letter for the word pissed off before and she was really mad too.
One of my sisters living here in California already voted she told me. I cringed. She is in nursing school and doesn’t have much time. She is 50 years old. I asked her who she voted for and she said, Obamaaaa and laughed. She really surprised me. I thought she might have picked Hillary. She voted for Obama before the Kennedy endorsement. She is fairly conservative, is connected to her church and enjoys real-estate and economics.
My other sister ( I have 3) told me she is voting for Obama because she feels that Hillary is a lesbian but won’t be honest about it because she likes power more. She is my funniest sister and a CPA. I think what she is trying to express is that she doesn’t trust Hillary.
I have been waiting for Mr. Obama since his big speech at the Democratic convention. My soul recognized him as our next President who would better our Country and change the world. No words can explain it. I just knew and I have been waiting.
I also saw Hillary at the Democratic convention sitting next to Jessie Jackson while Mr. Obama was speaking. I saw the fear in her face when the crowd responded to Mr.Obama. I knew then that she knew he was the real deal too, but, oh, how she tried to hide her fear that had crept into the outline of her features on display for me like a full moon.
Tonight, after hearing all the latest poll results, her apparent fear has been realized. The fight is definitely on. I think the polls are wrong and Barack won’t do as well as they predict.
But, if Barack survives tomorrow, Hillary will be destined to lose the party nomination piece at a time because of all those choices or acts you talked about (the dark political strategy and a life forged around it) have left their mark on her spirit. Folks are beginning to discern it because she is being held up against, not only his voting record, but also Barack’s spirit for comparison. I don’t think any other candidate could have unraveled her in this very unique way.
So fascinating.
Take Care,
Mercedes