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Published in the New York Post on January 12, 2008.
John McCain is starting to look like the candidate to beat for the GOP nomination. Not long ago, he was dismissed, unable to compete with Rudy Giuliani’s star power. But with New Hampshire, the tortoise has overtaken the hare.
If McCain wins Michigan on Tuesday (as he did in 2000), Rudy may find himself so far behind before he starts to run that he can never catch up.
McCain could even beat Hillary Clinton or Barack Obama. His record taps into a latent populism that attracts Republicans, Democrats and Independents. His battle against big tobacco, efforts to address global warming, opposition to torture during interrogations and fight to reform corporate governance and to protect investors and pensioners appeal to voters of all stripes.
His issues cut across party and ideological lines, for an attraction far broader than the single notes sung by the evangelical Mike Huckabee and the anti-terror Giuliani. His heroism is apparent and his independence from special interests notable. He’s pro-life and suitably conservative on social issues, so he attracts conservatives as well as moderates. And his credentials on terrorism and other national-security issues are outstanding.
He’s got two main obstacles to overcome: his support for amnesty for illegal immigrants and his age.
* McCain denies that he backed amnesty (citing the fines that illegals would’ve had to pay to regularize their status under his bill), but conservatives have pinned the label on him so indelibly that it’s unlikely to come off no matter how hard he scrubs.
Ultimately, though, he can likely transcend the nativist vote and appeal to the broad spectrum of Republicans. Polls indicate that nobody really believes it is feasible to deport 11 million people back to their home nations. If we can’t do that, they’ll linger on our streets and in our fields forever, as illegal tomorrow as they are today, unless we move to meet them halfway.
The Pat Buchanans of the world will split their votes between Mitt Romney and Huckabee, so this negative is not likely to prove any more lethal in Michigan, New York or California than it was in New Hampshire.
* His age is a bigger problem. The New Hampshire and Iowa contests were animated by record turnouts. One Granite State voter in five had never voted before in a primary. (Obama carried them by 20 points.) An incredible 11 percent of voters were under 24. (Obama won them, 3 to 1.) With young people storming the polls, a 71-year-old candidate labors under a huge handicap.
But consider his competition: Giuliani, who draws from the same well, has squandered his early lead in what can only be described as a determined passivity. Fred Thompson is also catatonic.
And each primary provides more proof of how how unattractive voters find Romney. Despite massive spending and a field organization with all the efficiency and busy-tailed enthusiasm of a good car-rental company, he still can’t sell because people don’t like him. His vast checkbook will let him linger on past Michigan, but he loses traction with each balloting.
Huckabee has yet to show an ability to transcend social-conservative issues. His pledge to repeal the IRS and instead adopt a fair tax (i.e., a national sales tax) might help him “go secular,” but until he achieves that, he’s just a regional candidate - a good vice president pick, not top-tier material.
For the general election, McCain is unique among the GOP field because he can attract centrist votes. He’s every Democrat’s and independent’s favorite Republican. He doesn’t have Rudy’s hard edges or family problems, and he knows how to push a lot of populist hot buttons, from CEO pay to credit-card overcharges to hedge-fund tax shelters to subprime chicanery.
Being able to win doesn’t mean he will win. But McCain is clearly back.
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Comments
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Finally an analyst who sees what is really going on…thanks. By the way I am an independent.
My premise is people vote with a combination of heart and logic. But as a marketing guy I learned long ago to appeal to the heart first.
McCain is beginning to rise because he resonates on several dimensions without putting people off:
1- Heart: He is likeable. His no airs, goofy at times persona is non-threatening and likeable. There is something about Clinton, Edwards, Romney and Giulliani that puts a lot of people off. Huckabee would tie McCain in this regard.
2- Heart: The “grandpa” feeling actually appeals to or at least does not put off younger voters. Remember kids that fall out with their parents often go to live with their grandparents. Looks like Obama is the only “kid” in the race.
3- Heart: Its tough no matter what your political views to not respect and admire McCain. Look at his service to his country, the torture he went through and most of all he has been his own man within the Republican Party.
4- Heart and Head: He comes across as a man of integrity and one who tells it like he sees it. Hillary will calculate and twist, Giulliani distorts and lies, Romney says dumb things like “do you want the people who brought you Katrina in charge of your health care” (no Mitt I want some guy in an insurance company on incentive pay looking after it}, Obama says great things (definitely a top ten orator) but just doesn’t have the record of accomplishment needed. Hang on for 2012.
5- Head: A track record of actually bi-partisan accomplishment. This is something none of the other candidates have on either side. Hillary couldn’t get health care done because she could not compromise and apparently couldn’t figure out that she had to. Romney dictated as governor, ceo and head of the Olympics what he wanted etc. Giulliani is a nasty piece of work.
6- Head: Do a gut check and I think everyone knows, to your point, we are not going to round up and ship out 12,000,000 people. The military says in will take a couple of years just to get a few hundred thousand out of Iraq once we decide to do it … and they are willing to leave. Besides that we need most of them. Besides they took great risk to get here, took personal responsibility for their lives, are trying to do better for their families, and they work long and hard. Gee, havn’t I just described the spirit that built America. The real solution lies in getting control of the influx, getting rid of the real criminals and finding an ideological compromise to deal with the rest. A “no amnesty” mantra is not helpful and really means “status quo”. We need a solution.
7- Head: This is a biggy with me. McCain is the only one putting front and center a plan for energy self sufficiency that makes sense to me. First, getting away from foreign oil sets the foundation for solving so many of our domestic issues (debt, the war(s), being a polluter of the world, etc). But second and McCain seems to be the only one gets this,t there, is a multi-trillion dollar worldwide opportunity in “green” and the US could lead the world in developing the technologies and keeping the desirable, sustainable jobs that will be created.The economic opportunity is vast, spans multiple technologies and will create an incredible well of good jobs.
In short, I like him and will vote for him given the chance mainly because of my last point.
Well, thats my $25 worth. Have a good one.
John McCain is clearly an American hero…end of story.
This nonsense of a win in New Hampshire will catapult him to the nomination is just that…nonsense! When McCain hits those states that prohibit cross-party or independants to vote in their primaries he will have met his Rubicon and his ride will come to a sudden inpact.
A sudden impact that will terminate any chance for him to rebound or play a major role as the primary process moves forward.
American hero, yes. Republican presidential nominee, no.
I agree that McCain looks like the guy to beat … but….
Number 1, he is likeable. This means people will actually listen to him. Contract to Romney who I think on balance would be just as good a President. Problem is something about him stops people from really listening to him. Hillary has the same disease.
Number 2, he has a solid defensible message (solutions) on each issue including immigration. Once people really listen I think most would agree there is no way to round up and deport 10-12 million people.
Number 3, he can use the issue of “change” to defend his compromises with the Dems and the joint bills. If people really want change then he has a track record of making the compromises necessary to get it done. If someone says they want change but in the next breath spout their ideological must haves then forget it… that is what we have now.
Number 4, the Repubs may be wising up and realizing he may be their best chance to win against Clinton or Obama.