OPRAH INTERVENTION IS A BIG DEAL
Oprah’s campaigning for Obama is very important and will have a huge impact on the race. She gives women permission to vote for Obama rather than for Hillary. She tells blacks that it is important to vote for Obama. And she puts distance between Obama and Edwards, the pesky third place challenger whose lingering strength in Iowa threatens to muddy the Obama victory over Hillary. Normally celebrity endorsements mean little. But as America’s best known and best liked woman and black, her endorsement means a great deal in an election based on the convergence of the first woman and the first African American to run for president.
WHY THE HUCKABEE SURGE?
The votes of the followers of Romney, Thompson, and to some extent those for McCain were really anti-Giuliani votes by social conservatives. Rudy’s lead in the national polls has made him the key factor in the race and social conservatives panicked at the idea of a pro choice nominee. But they were diffused among three candidates. Now that there is a consensus among social conservatives on one candidate — Huckabee — they have tipped in his favor creating a self-sustaining surge.
But with the surge comes scrutiny and vetting. We will see if Huckabee is up to handling it.
BILL HURTS, NOT HELPS, HILLARY’S CAMPAIGN
Published on FoxNews.com on December 7, 2007.
Bill Clinton’s poll ratings are very high so Hillary figures he can be of great help to her on the campaign trail. So far, so good – but then they extrapolate that view and conclude that he would be a good person to make her negative attacks on opponents, to answer charges against her and to take the media to task for their coverage. And that’s where they are wrong.
CREDIT IRAQ INVASION FOR IRAN CHANGE
What was the international pressure and scrutiny that made Iran terminate its bomb building project in 2003? The National Intelligence Estimate specified that such pressure was the key factor in the alteration of course, but it failed to identify what pressure led to the change. There were no UN sanctions on the table back then and the diplomatic effort by Germany, France, and the UK was only just beginning. The pressure was obviously the US led invasion of next door Iraq. So give our troops and the Bush Administration credit. The invasion has not only led to Libya’s decision to cancel its bomb projects but to Iran’s as well. If the NIE is accurate, and we all have our doubts, then Bush should be making it clear that the turnaround in Teheran is due to the invasion.
HILLARY, RUDY MAY KNOW LIFE AFTER DEATH
Published on TheHill.com on December 5, 2007.
It now seems possible, and some would say probable, that both front-runners for their party nominations will be wiped out in the early caucuses and primaries. It may well be that neither Hillary Clinton nor Rudy Giuliani win anything before the Florida primary on Jan. 29.
HILLARY SLIPPING BADLY IN NEW HAMPSHIRE
Not only has Hillary lost her lead in Iowa, but she is way down in New Hampshire too. In October, she averaged (5 polls) a 19 pt lead over Obama. In early and mid November, her lead dropped to an average (5 polls) of 13 pts. In the polls at the end of November, her lead is down to an average (4 polls) of 9 points with the two most recent surveys — Rasmussen and Fox News — showing her lead at 7 pts.
Given the sharpness of her drop, it is likely that a loss in Iowa would cost her New Hampshire as well.
