12.2.2007
Not only has Hillary lost her lead in Iowa, but she is way down in New Hampshire too. In October, she averaged (5 polls) a 19 pt lead over Obama. In early and mid November, her lead dropped to an average (5 polls) of 13 pts. In the polls at the end of November, her lead is down to an average (4 polls) of 9 points with the two most recent surveys — Rasmussen and Fox News — showing her lead at 7 pts.
Given the sharpness of her drop, it is likely that a loss in Iowa would cost her New Hampshire as well.
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If Hillary loses it (and you know there ARE other Dem candidates you can cover) in both Iowa and New Hampshire, doesn’t that obliterate the very basis of her campaign - that she is inevitable? Really, we’ve been hearing since 1993 - in mocking tones at first, less so with time- that Hillary was going to be President after Bill. Everyone knew that her Senate campaign was not to serve NY, but her presidential ambitions (mores the shame then that my homestate voted for her). Now, with Gore gone, Kerry gone, and no other respectable Dem with national recognition, she was supposed to walk away with the nomination because… well, because we always knew it was heading to this. It’s not as though one term in the Senate with no notable legistation to speak of qualifies her. Nor her shifting positions on the Iraq war, where her voting record is strictly at odds with her party’s base. No, it’s just that we’ve been conditioned for 15 years to see her as inevitable, and yet she’s likely to get beaten by a charismatic State Senator with no experience in much of anything. Hell, she could lose out to Kerry’s dud of a VP nominee, the emptiest empty suit I’ve seen in some time. And if the nation sees her lose two contests that she was supposed to win, won’t they start asking why they were considering voting for her in the first place?
At least Rudy has the benefit of low expectations in Iowa and New Hampshire. While many assume he will be the GOP nominee, it’s not considered inevitable, and everyone expected him to face an uphill battle, especially in states like Iowa. He can lose a couple of states, so long as he can clinch in places like California, Florida, New York, and New Jersey (if he stumbles in any of those, the case for his nomination becomes just as tenuous as Hillary’s).