It may be wishful thinking, but the increasing evidence that the US military does not think highly of the way the Iraqi leadership has used the extra time afforded by the surge in American troop strength raises the possibility that Bush could begin to order a draw down of US forces in Iraq by the end of the year.
While he could not claim victory, he certainly could lay the blame (with justification) on the Iraqi regime for failing to bring about a genuine coalition with the Sunnis and for not dividing up the oil revenue. He could begin to pull out American troops based on Hillary’s rationale that American troops have done their share but the Iraqi government has not done its share.
Would such a move work politically? You bet it would! Nixon, forewarned by Republican loses in Congress in 1970, accelerated troop withdrawal from Vietnam and even had Kissinger announce that “peace is at hand” in the days before the 1972 general election. It worked like a charm and propelled him to an easy re-election victory.
Bush could still do a lot to save his party by beginning to pull out.
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Not only he would save the future of the party, but also the lives of many soldiers that have no business in Iraq. But, do not think, by any chance, that the democrats are not going to take advantage of this action and criticized his stubbornness in this war…nb
I am in Iraq, and work with an Army battalion that is often paired up with the Iraqi Army and Iraqi Police. The Iraqi soldiers are often on leave, or quit on a moments notice. We have to train 125% to get 100% mannning, and even then after a few months the level has slipped to 80-90%.
The IP’s are worse, rife with corruption and infiltration by the insurgents. The IP’s are sometimes the worst abusers of their own people. The citizens do want freedom for the most part, but are skeptical about CF. The insurgents have ran an excellent propaganda campaign, so full trust is harder to achieve.
Worse yet, Abu Gharib forced the implementation of an Iraqi justice system that requires such a high level of proof to convict, that we are forced to let captured suspects with positive explosives tests walk. Now who has explosive residue on them in this country? IED makers, transporters, and handlers, but without more evidence the magistrates set them free so they can strike again.
It is past time to admit we bit off more than we could chew, and start a slow, phased withdrawal. Civil war will erupt, but eventually burn itself out. There will be much finger-pointing while it happens. Our money is better spent sealing up our borders and protecting our transportation systems than it is trying to help a country that doesn’t want freedom enough to earn it. They want it handed to them without the sacrifice and that doesn’t cut it in my book.