Published on TheHill.com on May 23, 2007.
The Republican Party would be self-destructive (not for the first time, either) if they did not let the immigration compromise negotiated by Sens. Saxby Chambliss (R-Ga.) and Edward Kennedy (D-Mass.) pass and become law. The hopes of the entire Latino community are pinned to immigration reform and, if the GOP is seen as blocking it, the consequences for the indefinite future will be horrific. The Republican Party will lose Hispanics as surely as they lost blacks when Barry Goldwater ran in 1964 against the civil rights bill (even though a higher percentage of Republicans than Democrats backed the bill in each house).
If the Hispanics are not massively turned off by a Republican rejection of immigration reform, they will drift into an increasingly pro-Republican orientation just as Irish and Italian Catholics did before them. Already Protestant evangelicalism has converted a third of the American Latino population, a clear precursor of GOP political support.
Hispanics now account for 13 percent of the U.S. population (blacks are 12 percent) and will constitute 20 percent of our population by 2020 regardless of whether immigration reform passes or not. Key red states like Texas and Florida hang in the balance, depending on the voting intention of their burgeoning Latino populations.
The reform compromise proposed in the Senate postpones, in my opinion wrongly, granting citizenship and voting rights to immigrants now in the U.S. for at least a decade. While they get legal status immediately on payment of a $5,000 fine, they must return to their country of origin and wait their turn in line for a valid green card to return legally. Only then can they become citizens. Given the seven- to eight-year wait for green cards, they would not be a potent political force until well into the next decade.
In the meantime, the GOP base should note that the bill commits the Democrats to the border fence and a major increase in border guards. It also will require tamper-proof identification cards, a key element in blocking further illegal immigration.
But the political stakes are largely in the symbolism of the bill. Whichever party is seen as supporting reform will gain a huge vote share among Hispanics, and the opponents will lose accordingly.
Had the Republicans gotten it together to pass such a bill while they ran Congress, they would have gotten unambiguous credit for the achievement. This history would have made it possible to switch Latinos into Republican voters. Surely, two-thirds of Latinos would not have voted Democrat as they did, in their disappointment with the lack of a bill, in 2006.
In fact, the Republican Party could well have held onto the Senate with a few Latino switches in key states like Georgia and Missouri.
Now the GOP will have to share credit with the Democrats, but the signature on the bill will still read “George W. Bush,” a fact that Latinos are not going to forget.
But if the Republicans kill the bill, driven by their own irreconcilable base, they will leave it to the next president — very probably a Democrat — and two Democratic houses of Congress to pass the liberating legislation. The GOP will have delivered the largest minority group in America right into the hands of its adversaries.
The compromise requires English skills, payment of a fine, and a good work history for an illegal immigrant to get citizenship. It also requires that he “touch back” in Mexico and wait his turn. The bill also puts border enforcement before the granting of rights.
Democrats want Hispanics to vote but don’t want them to work and compete with their labor union allies for jobs.
Republicans want them to work (since the employers are mostly Republican) but don’t want them to vote.
This bill, unfortunately, allows current illegal immigrants to work immediately but defers giving them the franchise for almost a decade. It’s a bill a Republican should love.
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Comments
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? So we have nothing but a Hobson’s choice?
We either a: and become reunited with Mexico,or b: protect our borders and become a socialist state??
Gee, Dick– don’t you have a door number three?
I guess my relatives and my wife’s relatives, dating to the 1700s, just find a new place to migrate to ???
The Roman Empire was unable to withstand continued invasions and upheavals. Its collapse exposed the East to Mongols and the South to Moors and Asiatics. Only an infusion was able to perpetuate a semblance of Greek culture.
so, Dick, ??? VIVA LA RAZA ????
Ernest S.
The Immigration bill is a total mess.
The Senate’s Immigration Bill will increase federal benefits to “New Legal Workers” by over $100 Billion if is agreed to by the House and then signed by President Bush. This has been certified by a new Congressional Budget Office analysis that was recently released.
No one in the congress that was elected in November 2006 has brought this to the attention of the American people. We only voted for them why would we need to know how they are spending out money.
It should also be noted that the Immigration Bill would require almost 400 miles of border fencing to be built along the Mexico - US Border; and at a cost of at least $3 Million plus a,000 additional Border Patrols Agents and “Detention Facilities” that could house up to 20,000 detainees.
What a country!
P.S. Some say it would be a wash due to increased tax revenues. What about collecting the tax revenues that were not paid. Enough said for today.
Dick - you’ve lost your mind too - you cant close the border - you cant stop counterfeit documents - you cant keep social security/medicaid/care from going broke sooner - the bill would be a MAJOR disaster downstream - why would anyone want to take the blame for chaos - when the inevitable economic downturn arrives riots are almost a certainty - fence the border and log ‘em out when their jobs fade in the recession - did you notice Harry Reid start calling Ted Kennedy’s bill Geo Bush’s bill at the first sign of failure - how can you possibly enjoy being around such crap - Congress gutter ratings are way too high
Lets cut out the bull. Illegals are taking away american jobs. Earlier this year, a new Applebys was being built close to a supermarket where I shop. Well on a Sunday morning after shopping, I passed the Applebys site, and there were at least 30 Latinos, my bet many were illegals waiting to sign up for jobs. I can imagine what the pay was for these illegals working on a Sunday. Its the same all over the country. The boom in the housing industry was built on the backs of cheap labor. Americans will take those jobs, but the fact is the building industry doesn’t want to pay the higher wages to americans. They would rather continue to hire illegals at the same time they continue to ratchet up the prices of new homes.
President bush is selling out our country in hopes it will boaster his failing legacy. If the Amnesty bill is passed, Bush will be looked on in the future as the president that sold out our country and helped turn it into another welfare state.
eigh8or
More Bull this Saturday from President Bush. In his Radio speech today, Bush said he would veto any spending bill that would break the budget. If Bush is to be honest to his words, then he would veto any Immigration bill as it will definitely stick a knife in the heart of social security, as well as the medicare program.
Oh, and another line of bull from mr bush. The $4 billion in funding for more border security is supposed to come from the penalties that illegals will be paying as part of the immigration bill. I can see the illegals running to the front of the line to pay their penalties. Yea right! What a joke.
eigh8or