Published on TheHill.com on October 12, 2010
With the Internet, we have all become fixated on that day’s polling, following the most minute changes in the swing districts on Realclearpolitics.com. But we are overstating the importance of polling in determining the outcome of the coming elections. (Odd thought coming from me!)
The fact is that while Republicans lead in 53 House seats now held by Democrats and are within five points in 20 more, the margins are very thin. In only 14 Democratic seats is the Republican leading by 10 points or more. In all the other districts, it is turnout that will determine the victor.
The mainstream media is peddling the line that the Democrats are staging a comeback, slicing Republican leads. It is absolute nonsense. A close review of polling in every close House race in the nation indicates that Republicans now lead in 53 seats currently held by Democrats and are within five points in 20 more.
And the trend is Republican, not Democrat. Of the races where comparative data over the past few weeks is available, Republicans have gained in 33 while Democrats have gained in only 10.
I am working directly in all of the races listed below (for free). They are all Republican House candidates running in Democratic districts. They all have a very good chance to win but very little money. Most have only recently come on the radar screen of the national GOP leadership and have not gotten the funding they need or could well use.
But, before you go down the list, please donate to SuperPacUSA.com. It is my effort to beat the 40 or so Democratic incumbents nobody targeted earlier in the year. We can beat most of them! I am doing an independent expenditure to elect the Republicans in these districts.
That means I can’t have anything to do with the campaign (have no direct contact). So please, in addition to the funds you donate to the candidates listed below, please give very, very generously to SuperPacUSA.com. If we can raise $10 million in the next two weeks, we can defeat a majority of our targets. We need your help to make it possible.
Now please go down the list and try to give something to each of these candidates. I believe they will all win if they get even a little more money. Please give to them generously:
1. Morgan Philpot, Utah
Utah should not have a Democratic Congressman, but it does. Hiding out in the most Republican state in the nation is Congressman Jim Matheson. It is Congressmen like him that keep Pelosi in power, coming from a highly conservative district that McCain carried heavily. Philpot is only 3 points behind but has exactly $25,000 in the bank! To win, he needs about ten times that (to afford Salt Lake City media). Please support him generously.
2. Mike Yost, Florida
One of the worst members of Congress is Corrine Brown, a member of the Democratic Black Caucus from a district that is half white (the Orlando area). She is a total liberal and anti-Israel. She deserves to be defeated. Mike Yost trails her by 49-43 but has only $30,000 on hand (a sum I raised for him during Tea Party rallies in Orlando). He can and will win if he gets funding. And Yost is a staunch conservative – a big difference.
3. Beth Anne Rankin, Arkansas
Thanks to your previous donations, Rankin is now only 3 points behind Democratic incumbent Mike Ross. Ross, who I targeted in previous appeals, is the head of the Blue Dogs in the House and the ultimate hypocrite. He voted for Obamacare in committee, when his vote could have killed it. And then – piously – voted no twice on the floor when he felt his constituents were watching. His district is South Arkansas – one of the most conservative in the nation. I am going there on October 15 to campaign for Beth Anne Rankin. A former staffer for Governor Mike Huckabee, she is a solid conservative and is en route to beating Mike Ross. Please donate to put her over the top!
4. Morgan Griffith, Virginia
His race was featured in Friday’s Wall Street Journal. Democratic incumbent Rick Boucher voted for cap and trade, a cardinal sin in this coal mining district. As a result, Griffith will defeat Boucher if he gets even a little extra funding. Boucher has been in office for more than a decade even though this district went overwhelmingly for McCain. Griffith is a solid conservative who proved himself in the Virginia House of Delegates. He had real guts to take on Boucher and deserves our support. He has Boucher under 50% of the vote and, if he gets his name out there, he will beat him.
5. Steven Palazzo, Mississippi
The single most conservative Democrat in Congress is Gene Taylor who took Trent Lott’s seat in south Mississippi. But it is hypocrites like Taylor who keep Pelosi in power. He also voted for the stimulus package. There is no way on earth this district should be represented by a Democrat. Palazzo, who was on active duty military service for two weeks last month, is a solid Republican conservative. Largely because of your donations (I did an in district fund raiser for him in August), he has drawn almost even with Taylor (down 45-41). He needs a little boost to make it to the top.
6. Tom Marino, Pennsylvania
The Democrats are waging dirty, personal negative campaigns this year but Congressman Chris Carney, Marino’s opponent, is setting some kind of record in this regard. He is peddling a story that Marino, a former US Attorney, recommended a felon to get a casino license. But the “felon” is a 70 year old guy who was convicted of a misdemeanor 40 years ago and has had a clean bill ever since. In fact, the Pennsylvania Supreme Court unanimously gave him a casino license and the Chief Justice wrote defending his character in doing so! Marino was cruising to victory when Carney started his mud throwing. Now he needs funds to answer and regain the lead. Please help out.
7. Rob Steele, Michigan
Congressman John Dingell wrote the Obamacare law. He is chairman of the House Committee that put it together. He’s a 55 year incumbent (longest in the House) and his father held the seat before him (since 1932 it has been in the family). It’s time to throw him out. He is now trailing Dr. Rob Steele, a heart doctor who knows firsthand how bad the Obamacare law really is. Dingell’s defeat would not just win us one more seat. It would send shock waves through the Democratic Party! Please donate.
Today, October 6th, is the first day this year that the Republican candidate leads in the most recent poll in ten Senate races for Democratic seats. If the Republicans hang onto these leads, they are assured of a majority!
Even more important, the Republican is moving up in all ten races even where the margin is still narrow!
The following are the polling data from the most recent survey listed on realclearpolitics.com:
Urgent Message From the Desk of Dick Morris
Dear Fellow American:
America is at a crossroad, perhaps the likes of which we have never seen in our history.
This coming election in November will determine the shape of a new Congress and how our nation will look in 10, 20 — even 100 years from today.
We want a nation our Founding Fathers would be proud of. Not one that Barack Obama is seeking to create.
I am closely monitoring thirty five House races and want to send you updates every week or so on the ones that most need your help. The most recent list is enclosed below. It has three new candidates: Rob Steele in Michigan, Morgan Philpot in Utah, and Mike Keown in Georgia. And it still has on it a number of candidates from the previous list who still need plenty of help. Everyone on this list can win. They just need your help.
Just as when the Republican establishment wrote off Scott Brown’s effort to capture “Ted Kennedy’s” seat in the Senate, the Washington Republicans may be under estimating the number of seats the GOP can capture in the House of Representatives.
Over confidence is not a danger. Everybody is working as hard as they can to elect Republicans all over America. Nobody is apathetic on the right. The only indifference and passivity in the nation is on the left. But under confidence – writing off seats that we can win – is a huge obstacle to further progress.
Published on National Review Online on September 29, 2010
Comparisons of Barack Obama’s presidency to Jimmy Carter’s miss the point. Carter’s presidency did little to change the basic party construct of the nation or to influence its ideology. Reagan’s presidency accomplished both.
But Barack Obama is destroying the Democratic party. It may not recover for a long time. In this, he most closely resembles a synthesis of the failed candidacy of George McGovern and the catastrophic presidency of Herbert Hoover. The damage he is doing to his party’s image and prospects closely resembles the harm Hoover did to the Republican party, from which it did not recover for 20 years after he left office. And the extent to which Obama is discrediting the Left parallelsthe damage George McGovern did to his ideological confreres in 1972, when he went down to flaming defeat.