Published on TheHill.com on September 28, 2010
Thanks to the leadership of President Obama, Speaker Pelosi and Majority Leader Reid, the Democratic Party is facing the biggest defeat in midterm elections in the past 110 years, perhaps surpassing the modern record of a 74-seat gain set in 1922. They will also lose control of the Senate.
Republicans are now leading in 54 Democratic House districts. In 19 more, the incumbent congressman is under 50 percent and his GOP challenger is within five points. That makes 73 seats where victory is within easy grasp for the Republican Party. The only reason the list is not longer is that there are 160 Democratic House districts that were considered so strongly blue that there is no recent polling available.
The only limit on Republican gains in the midterm elections is that the GOP may be aiming too low. There are dozens of additional House seats we may be able to win if we would just adjust our sights upward.
An analysis of the published polling data on eighty House races indicates that there are 54 districts now represented by Democrats in which Republicans are now ahead and another 19 where they are within five points and where the Democratic incumbent is under 50% of the vote. That’s 73 likely wins. (The undecided vote always goes against the incumbent, so if a Congressman is significantly under 50%, even though he may have a lead, he is likely to lose).
Published in the New York Post on September 24, 2010
New York may emerge as the epicenter of a political earthquake on Nov. 2. This longtime blue-state bystander could elect a Republican governor, dethrone House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and topple the Democratic majority in the US Senate.
Yesterday’s unveiling of the GOP “Pledge to America” recalls the “Contract with America” of 1994 — but 2010 is shaping up to be a larger upheaval.
Obama’s essentially European world outlook has no better illustration than his comment to Bob Woodward during a July, 2010 interview that “we can absorb a terrorist attack. We’ll do everything we can to prevent it, but even a 9/11, even the biggest attack ever…we absorbed it and we are stronger.”
Published on TheHill.com on September 21, 2010
The MSNBC cameras unwittingly — and probably unwillingly — captured a Joe the Plumber moment during Monday’s town hall meeting called by President Obama to discuss the economy. Expressing the frustration of tens of millions of Americans on a day during which the economists called the recession over, Velma Hart, a self-described CFO, wife, mother and veteran, expressed her “deep disappointment” with Obama’s economic record — to his face.
“I’ve been told that I voted for a man who said he’s going to change things in a meaningful way for the middle class. I’m one of those people, and I’m waiting, sir. … I’m waiting, but I don’t feel it yet.”
September is drawing to a close and it is incredibly, amazingly clear that the Democratic Party has no strategy for winning the midterm Congressional elections. Instead, the national leadership lurches from one improvisation to another while local campaigns scramble to find garbage they can dig up on their opponents in the hopes that these negative ads will suffice even though they have no message. To the extent the Democrats address the Obama agenda at all, it is to distance themselves from it, heralding their votes against Pelosi, Reid, and Obama as badges of independence and honor. Nobody is out there saying the stimulus is working or that Obamacare is good or that the economy is recovering or that they wish we had cap and trade. The legislative program of the Obama Administration is an orphan while dissent has a thousand fathers.
Published in the New York Post on September 16, 2010
Had Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand used her incumbency to good advantage, her victory this fall in the heavily Democratic state of New York would be a foregone conclusion. Instead, she squandered her opportunity — remaining passive and on the sidelines while the Republicans fought for the right to oppose her.
The rules are different for appointed senators, like Gillibrand, than for incumbents who’ve won election to the job: They have yet to make that crucial first sale with the voters.
Yesterday’s primary victories of O’Donnell in Delaware, and DioGuardi in New York illustrates how the Tea Party is cleansing the Republican Party and installing true believers over professional politicians. It is a healthy trend that will continue to recreate the Party of Reagan.
But the conventional media, instead of hailing this trend, warns that conservatives cannot be elected and bemoans the victory of true believers saying that it is equivalent to handing seats to the Democrats and the liberals. This reasoning, which made sense in other times, is badly flawed in today’s political climate.
Published on TheHill.com on September 14, 2010
There are so many faces of the radical Democratic Party. Obama, Reid, Pelosi, Dean, Hillary Clinton. So many targets for the Republicans. But the GOP is faceless. Palin is a target, but nobody thinks she runs the party. Either Bush will do, but they are increasingly subjects for archaeologists, not politicians. Cheney? Not when he’s in the hospital.
So Obama and his allies have to create a villain, and none fits the bill so well as House Minority Leader John Boehner (R-Ohio). By appearing in the Ohioan’s district and attacking him directly, President Obama is hoping to turn the prospective future Speaker into a modern-day version of Newt Gingrich, who served as such an attractive target for Bill Clinton.
Has the Democratic Presidential Primary of 2012 started already? Is Hillary Clinton beginning to position herself for a challenge to her boss? Yesterday, Hillary fired what may have been the first shot:
“I think that our rising debt level poses a national security threat and it poses a national security threat in two ways: it undermines our capacity to act in our own interests and it does constrain us where constraint may be undesirable. And it also sends a message of weakness, internationally.”
The contrast with her husband’s presidency is implicit: He balanced the budget and reduced the debt to the point where Wall Street fretted that there would be no more federal debt instruments to buy, leaving them without a safe place to park their money.