9:22 PM EST.
OHIO IS CURTAINS
The FoxNews decision to call Ohio for Obama virtually guarantees a victory for the Democrat. If FoxNews is correct, the election is over. Florida still remains in play with Obama clinging to a 3 point lead with half the vote counted. It would appear that Obama is going to win although not by the margins that had been predicted.
I will be working with Newsmax.com on election night to assess the data as it comes in. I will do interviews and send in blogs to NewsMax.com as the evening unfolds. I believe we will be able to tell who has won and by what margin very early in the evening as we interpret, properly, the returns from the states that close their polls at 7:30 PM.
I won’t be on FoxNews election night but will be on O’Reilly on Wednesday and Hannity and Colmes on Thursday to react to the results.
Thank you very, very much for reading my emails throughout the race and I hope that they brought you insights that you found helpful and even entertaining!
It’s only a one night poll, but John Zogby reports that his Friday night survey shows McCain leading Obama by 48 to 47. It’s only a one night poll (as opposed to the usual three day moving average) but it is 1,000 interviews. It is also over Halloween night! But it is the first poll in three weeks that shows McCain leading. What’s up? We think that the advertisement being run by GOPTrust.com is having an effect. It is an ad featuring Rev. Jeremiah Wright decrying America and calling it “the USA of KKK” while Obama sat, deaf-mute in the congregation. By bringing the shocking reality of Rev. Wright back to America’s TV screens; GOPTrust.com is performing an important public service. It is just not credible that Obama sat in the congregation for twenty years, asked the Reverend to officiate at his wedding and to baptize his children, titled his book after one of his sermons, and did not know the kind of vile, anti-American hatred he was spewing.
A massive shift in younger and older voters is roiling the presidential race according to new data from the Fox News/Opinion Dynamics Poll concluded October 28-29. Younger voters — under 45 — once Obama’s base, now are evenly divided between the two candidates. But voters over 65 have shifted sharply to the Democrat in the past week.
Published in the New York Post on October 30, 2008
Iraq isn’t the only place where the surge seems to be working. John McCain’s gains over the last five days are remaking the political landscape as Election Day approaches.
The double-digit leads Barack Obama held last week have evaporated, as all three of the top tracking polls (the most current and reliable measurements out there) show McCain hot on Obama’s heels.
Published on TheHill.com on October 28, 2008
If current survey trends continue, Obama will finish with less than 50 percent in the polls. Even discounting the Nader vote (some people never learn), the undecided voters could tip the race either way. How will they break?
Since there is no incumbent, they cannot automatically be assigned to the challenger; and since turnout is likely to be huge, the current undecided voters will probably make their way to the polls and cast their ballots.
But for whom?
Zogby, Rasmussen and Gallup all report McCain closing to 5 points back. Zogby had him 12 back, Rasmussen 8 and Gallup 6 in their previous polling. McCain’s use of the Joe the Plumber and the tax issue in his ads is working!
Unilaterally, John McCain agreed to disarm himself by refusing to use perhaps his most potent weapon in exposing Barack Obama: the Democrats’ relationship with Rev. Jeremiah Wright. The McCain campaign and, at its direction, the Republican Party, have banned use of footage of Rev. Wright from their campaign commercials. Perhaps for fear of being accused of racism, they are not bringing up the single most compromising association in Obama’s past – his close liaison with Rev. Wright.
Published in the New York Post on October 26, 2008
The most reliable surveys put McCain five to seven points behind Obama as we enter the last week of this interminable campaign. But in a race that will be famous for years afterwards for its volatility, it is not too late for the Republican to pull out a victory.
The perfect storm combining the vast expansion of government’s role in the American economy, a looming Obama triumph and likely huge Democratic gains in Congress augur the most serious threat of the onset of socialism the United States has faced since the New Deal. But while it became obvious that FDR’s goal was to save capitalism, not to replace it, it is by no means clear that Barack Obama is similarly inclined.
Today (Thursday, October 23rd), tomorrow, and the weekend are the last chance McCain has to get back into this race. To understand why, let’s briefly recap what’s happened since the conventions.
McCain left the back-to-back conventions with a lead for the first time in the presidential race. His strength was fueled by his designation of Sarah Palin and the enthusiasm she aroused in the Republican base. The Democrats, caught off guard, attacked her viciously which only reinforced the perception of a woman being victimized by a sexist left.