HILLARY FOR SECRETARY OF STATE – IS HE KIDDING?

November 14, 2008
Category: Dick's Articles

Hopefully, it’s just a rumor started by the Clintonistas, but is Barack Obama seriously considering appointing Hillary Clinton as his Secretary of State? If he pulls the trigger on that appointment, he will deserve what he gets!

Obama would do well to remember the history of Harry Truman and Jimmy Byrnes in 1944. Byrnes, known as the “assistant president” in FDR’s third term, was widely thought to be Roosevelt’s choice to replace Henry Wallace as his running mate on the 1944 ticket. At the last minute, FDR re-considered and decided Byrnes, a South Carolinian, was too conservative and went with Truman instead. But the Democratic Party establishment clearly was disappointed. While they wanted to get rid of the almost-Communist Wallace, they wanted Byrnes not Truman. (Just like the party establishment really wanted Hillary, not Obama, to be the presidential nominee).


IT ALL COMES DOWN TO GEORGIA

November 13, 2008
Category: Dick's Articles

Those of us who want to frustrate Obama’s radical agenda are one election away from political impotence. Ted Stevens has just fallen 800 votes behind in the Alaska recount (hard to make up in a tiny state) and Coleman is clinging to just a 200 vote margin in Minnesota (tiny in a huge state) with the recount not yet even begun. So if we lose Alaska and Minnesota, Saxby Chambliss’ seat in Georgia is the 60th vote to stop a filibuster. It all comes down to Georgia.


DEMOCRATS CLOSE IN ON 60 VOTES

November 12, 2008
Category: Dick's Articles

With the election a week old, Norm Coleman’s lead in Minnesota keeps dropping with each day. And now, for the first time, the official recount is underway. Is the left stealing votes? One get suspicious when every day brings new ballots that favor Franken over Coleman.

There is nothing we can do about Minnesota (or Alaska, where Stevens’ margin is under attack as well) but there is a great deal we can — and must — do to protect the 60th Republican seat in Georgia.


SARAH PALIN SAVED GOP FROM LANDSLIDE DEFEAT

November 11, 2008
Category: Dick's Articles

Published on TheHill.com on November 11, 2006

As Richard Nixon wrote, “history is written by liberals,” but the story of the 2008 campaign is too important to cede to them the analysis of what happened. A close analysis of the returns indicates several key realities:


THE ELECTION IS NOT OVER

November 11, 2008
Category: Dick's Articles

Obama is elected but the Senate has not been fully chosen. Hanging in the balance is, perhaps, the fate of the center-right free market system that has brought America decades of success and prosperity. The Democrats now have 57 Senators, having gained open seats in New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia and having defeated Republican incumbents in New Hampshire (Sununu), North Carolina (Dole), and Oregon (Smith). But races in Minnesota and Alaska will be decided by recounts. Republicans are leading in both but, particularly in Minnesota, the margin is too thin for comfort. And, in Georgia, Republican incumbent Saxby Chambliss was forced into a runoff against his Democratic opponent, Jim Martin.


OBAMA MUST FORSAKE CAP GAINS TAX HIKE TO STABILIZE MARKETS

November 10, 2008
Category: Dick's Articles

Published November 10, 2008

Wall Street is engaged in a test of wills with President-elect Barack Obama. The market, which dropped one thousand points last week, is not going to recover until the next president forswears his plans to raise the capital gains tax. In our book Fleeced we predicted that the Dow would crash after an Obama election because of fears that he will raise taxes, particularly the tax on capital gains.


OBAMA’S ‘CHANGE’: BACK TO THE DEMOCRATIC WASHINGTON INSIDERS

November 7, 2008
Category: Dick's Articles

What’s with Obama’s choice of old-time Clinton cronies and recycled Washington insiders to run the transition to his new politics of change?

Can’t the anti-Washington insiders President-elect find anyone who isn’t a Beltway has-been?

Judging by the appointments to his transition committee and leaks about possible top staff and Cabinet choices, Obama appears to be practicing the politics of status quo, not the politics of change.


AN ELECTION THAT THE REPUBLICANS NEEDED TO LOSE – GOOD LUCK OBAMA

November 6, 2008
Category: Dick's Articles

Published on TheHill.com on October 5, 2008

If ever there was an election that was not worth winning, it was the contest of 2008. While it was hard-fought on both sides, had McCain won, it might have spelled the end of the Republican Party. As it is, the party is well-situated to come back in 2010 and in 2012, if it learns the lessons of this year.

Simply put, all hell is about to break loose in the markets and the economy. The mortgage crisis will likely be followed by defaults in credit card debt, student loans and car loans. We will probably be set for two years of zero growth, according to economists with whom I talk. And the federal efforts to protect the nation from the worst of the recession will probably lead to huge budget deficits and resulting inflation. We are in for stagflation that could last for years.


OBAMA: CONSERVATOR IN CHIEF

November 5, 2008
Category: Dick's Articles

Publish in the New York Post on November 5, 2008

While the Democrats and Barack Obama won big yesterday, even coming close to a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate, Obama will find their options substantially constrained by reality.

Their handicap is the financial condition of the nation they’ll inherit. Think of a trustee or conservator of a bankrupt company.


DICK MORRIS’ ’08 PLAY-BY-PLAY Volume 1, #38

November 4, 2008
Category: Play-By-Play

DICK MORRIS’ ’08 PLAY-BY-PLAY

Volume 1, #38

November 4, 2008

HOW TO DETERMINE THE WINNER… AND GO TO BED EARLY!


Despite all the focus on individual “battleground” states in this election, the fact is that most states vote about the same relative to the national vote each year. When the presidential candidate’s national vote goes up by 3 points, they go up by there. And when he goes down by three, so do they.

So here is what to look for on early on election night.

Six states close their polls at 7 PM EST: Kentucky, Indiana, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, and Virginia. All but Vermont and Virginia are solidly Republican, so McCain better carry them, but if you check out the margin by which he does so, you can pretty well figure out the popular vote distribution nationally. (Virginia tends Republican but Obama could carry it).

In 2000, when Bush got only 48% of the national vote, in Kentucky and Indiana he won the support of 57% of their voters. In 2004, when Bush won 50.7% of the national vote, he got 60% of the vote in these two states. So each time, Bush did nine points better in these two states than he did in the rest of the nation.

So when you first see substantial returns from Indiana and Kentucky (about 1/2 of the vote counted) do the math and figure out what percentage of the vote McCain got. Then subtract nine points from the total and that will give you, more or less, what he will get nationally. To derive the Obama vote, and determine the winner, deduct 1.4% for Nader (his 2004 vote share) and give the rest to Obama.

So, for example, let’s assume that McCain is getting 56% of the votes in Indiana and Kentucky. Subtract nine to get his national vote share. That comes to 47% of the vote. Then add 1.4% for Nader and give the rest to Obama. Obama’s national vote, in that circumstance, would come to 51.6 or a five point national margin of victory. It won’t be exact but it will be pretty close.

In 2004, when the exit polls all predicted a Kerry victory, I figured out that they were wrong by 8 PM EST by using this formula. When it became clear that Bush was carrying Kentucky and Indiana by 60% of the vote, I could predict that he would get 51% and beat Kerry 51-48.

Georgia usually gives the Republican seven points more than his national showing. South Carolina votes eight points more Republican than the rest of the nation. Virginia votes three points more Republican and Vermont votes ten points less Republican than the rest of the nation. (I would hesitate to use Virginia for this model because of its substantial demographic changes and I’d worry about using Vermont because it is so small, but the other four states: Indiana, Georgia, Kentucky, and South Carolina should tell the story).

What about the electoral vote? Remember that it is very hard to win the popular vote and lose in the Electoral College. Since 1888 it has only happened once – in 2000. But then, Gore won the popular vote by a margin of only 0.4%. When things are that tight, the electoral vote can come in differently from the popular vote but a more convincing margin usually carries the Electoral College with it.

Just in case, I list for your convenience, the plus or minus formula below for each state. Remember it refers only to the Republican vote; you have to derive the Democratic vote on your own.

Thanks for reading my columns and articles all the way through the election and I hope you have enjoyed the journey we have taken together. It sure has been exciting!

STATE BY STATE MARGIN BY WHICH EACH STATE’S REPUBLICAN VOTE VARIES FROM THE NATIONAL VOTE

State Electoral Votes % Republican Deviation from National Vote
Utah 5 +20
Wyoming 3 +18
Idaho 4 +18
Nebraska 5 +15
Oklahoma 7 +14
North Dakota 3 +12
Alaska 3 +11
Kansas 6 +11
Alabama 9 +10
Texas 34 +10
South Dakota 3 +10
Indiana 11 +9
Kentucky 8 +9
Mississippi 6 +9
Montana 3 +9
South Carolina 8 +8
Georgia 15 +7
Louisiana 9 +6
Tennessee 11 +5
West Virginia 5 +5
Arizona 10 +4
North Carolina 15 +4
Virginia 13 +3
Missouri 11 +3
Arkansas 6 +3
Colorado 9 +2
Ohio 20 +1
Nevada 5 +1
Florida 27 0
Iowa 7 -1
New Mexico 5 -1
New Hampshire 4 -1
Wisconsin 10 -2
Oregon 7 -2
Michigan 17 -2
Minnesota 10 -3
Pennsylvania 21 -3
Washington 11 -4
Maine 4 -5
Delaware 3 -6
New Jersey 15 -7
Hawaii 4 -7
Illinois 21 -7
California 55 -7
Connecticut 7 -8
Maryland 10 -8
Vermont 3 -10
New York 31 -12
Rhode Island 4 -15
Massachusetts 12 -15
DC 3 -42

THANK YOU!

***COPYRIGHT EILEEN MCGANN AND DICK MORRIS 2008. REPRINTS WITH PERMISSION ONLY***

 


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